Thailand's sale of the century

[pingpong_fiasco]

Has anyone been following the sale of Thaksin's telephone network? It is public knowledge that he founded the corp, but until this fall nobody officially knew he still had shares in it, which he was officially forced to divest himself of before he became PM, according to the Thai constition. This is the second time he has profited from a share sell off in his term. He is crooked beyond belief.

But what strikes me the most is that he sold it the very day that new legislation came into effect freeing him from paying tax on the profits, and claims this is a coincidence.

Almost exactly one year to this very day I received an SMS from Thaksin's Shin Corp reminding me to vote in the then upcoming election (the election which re-installed Thaksin, Feb 6, 2005). Who paid for that mass SMS? Who got paid for it? Should a politician be influencing voter turnout through his own private corporation? The list of questions is endless.

[pingpong_fiasco]

Thaksin won't let the 'stupid' people win. That's the level of political debate in Thailand, ladies and gentlemen. Still, I loved that place ... Bangkok - what a city!

[williamwbishop]

You should write something about your experiences there, I'm sure it would be a good read. You haven't written anything for us in a while...what do you say? Plenty of the meaty stuff--smells, tastes, atmosphere, you know a descriptive journey.

[Sensei]

Very interesting story already.

[Sensei]

More info:
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...n_id=rss_daily

[pingpong_fiasco]

Well, Thaksin called snap elections - 3 years ahead of schedule. This is a brilliant move at first sight, but it may actually backfire on him.

In the best case for him, he will win the election. The middle class - and it is the middle class that are p.o.'d - do not matter in Thailand (as they recently discovered). Thaksin's power base is rural; farmers don't care about politics; and he can easily buy those few votes he might possibly not otherwise win - beasts of burden, esp. water buffalo ('kwai,' as in the bridge over the river kwai) are election currency in rural Thailand. His very likely victory will simply be a vindication for Thaksin, and life will go on.

But, on the other hand, the opposition parties are attempting to form a common front to boycott the election, an election they think they will lose. If the boycott goes through, things will get weird. Thaksin will be elected without the middle class even participating in the election. It's hard to believe that the king would accept any gov't thus formed.

If the boycott holds, I predict the king will suggest that Thaksin step down as leader of the party.

Also, remember that Thailand last had a military coup in 1991. It is hard to imagine that the army would step in on behalf of the middle class, or even that the middle class would want this. But the army could try to use the confusion to remove Thaksin, and lay claim to the vast wealth that Thaksin has brought to Thailand. Something like 6000 extra police officers are policing a rally in Bangkok today ... that civil power could be used more in more in an attempt to keep the army off the streets.

Interesting times in Thailand, esp. BKK, indeed. I wished I was still there ...

[pingpong_fiasco]

here's a good article basically summing up what I have been arguing.

[pingpong_fiasco]

Things are getting entrenched. Thaksin won't resign, he said today. Note how he says this after a lunch with heads of the armed forces. I wonder what assurances they had just given him.

[pingpong_fiasco]

aha, it seems that lunch was in fact a crisis meeting to avoid a coup, as i called above.

[pingpong_fiasco]

Well, here's populism in action. The rural votes seem to be holding firm, and why? Because Thaksin is good to the poor.

Yeah, so good that he changed the law to avoid having to pay tax on $1.9 Billion USD.